The media buying giant WPP Media (recently rebranded from GroupM) is downgrading its projected ad revenue forecast for 2025. After initially forecasting 7.7 percent growth in December, the firm is now projecting only 6 percent growth for the year, thanks largely to an uncertain economy and limited visibility for global trade.
At the same time, it is noting that 2025 will mark a significant shift in advertising when it comes to the makeup of professional content and user generated content. WPP Media says that this year, more than half of all content driven ad dollars will flow to creator-driven platforms like YouTube, TikTok and Instagram.
That said, Kate Scott-Dawkins, the global president of business intelligence for WPP Media, tells The Hollywood Reporter that “the lines are absolutely blurring” between professional content and UGC. After all, many creators like MrBeast and Ms Rachel now produce shows on major streaming platforms, and large entertainment companies frequently post content on creator platforms.
“Why are we seeing a shift? One of the reasons, I think, is the fundamental disparity between a professional publisher like a TV station or a newspaper where there are real fixed costs for employees,” Scott-Dawkins says. “It’s a very different cost model, right? And it’s allowed them to plow revenue into AI, into ad targeting, into technology areas where I think traditional media is just slower to innovate. Just understanding those business dynamics is useful as a starting point for this shift, and one of the reasons why we wanted to highlight it.”
The WPP Media report says that creator-generated revenue will hit $184.9 billion this year, up 20 percent from 2024, and is expected to more than double to $376.6 billion by 2030.
As for the 2025 downgrade to a mere $1.08 trillion in global ad revenue, Scott-Dawkins says that it is driven primarily by the U.S. and China.
“Where go those markets [the U.S. and China] goes the global number, and we did downgrade both of those markets this year a little bit,” she says, noting the macro uncertainty for marketers around the world.
“It makes it somewhat difficult for advertisers, and it’s why I’ve spoken about one of the big trends this year being a shift to more flexibility and agility, rather than a pullback,” she adds.
The WPP Media report also underscores the extent to which digital advertising is eating the world, accounting for 73.2 percent of global ad revenue, or 81.6 percent when streaming TV and digital out of home are factored in.
TV, once the 800 lb gorilla of advertising, is expected to only grow by 1 percent in 2025, inclusive of streaming, to $162.5 billion. Streaming TV now accounts for $41.8 billion of that total and expected to decline.
