With three weeks left to go, James Gunn and DC Studios‘ Superman is tracking to open in the $135 million range at the domestic box office.
If that forecast is right, Superman would land high up on the list of DC openings, although it would lag well behind the $166 million domestic debut of 2016’s Batman v Superman: The Dawn of Justice, not adjusted for inflation. At the same time, it would come in safely ahead of the last solo Superman movie, Zack Snyder’s 2013 film Man of Steel ($116 million).
Opinion, however, is sharply divided as to just how high Superman can fly.
The $135 million stat is from leading tracking service the National Research Group, according to sources with access to the data. NRG always provides a range in addition to a solo number; in this case, the range for Superman’s domestic opening is $125 million to $145 million.
Tracking is hardly a science, and projections have been notably off in a number of instances from all the services. To that end, insiders at DC Studios and Warners are being more conservative in suggesting $90 million to $125 million (although anything less than $100 million might be seen as a blemish).
On the opposite end of the spectrum, some box office experts who monitor social metrics speculate that Superman could open to as much as $175 million, which would supplant Batman v Superman as DC’s biggest opening. As of now, the next two biggest openings belong to Christopher Nolan final two Batman movies, 2012’s The Dark Knight Rises ($160.9 million) and 2008’s The Dark Knight ($158.4 million). If opening to $135 million, Gunn’s Superman would take the next spot, ahead of 2022’s The Batman ($134 million) and 2016’s Suicide Squad ($133.7 million), unadjusted.
The highly anticipated summer tentpole is a seminal moment for Gunn and Peter Safran, as its their first homegrown release since being tasked with restoring the luster to DC and making a stab at catching up with Marvel Studios. The movie, which kicks of their DC Universe, opens July 11 in North America, timed to its release around the world, meaning DC and Warners have three weeks to make their final marketing push.
Superman stars David Corenswet in the titular role opposite Rachel Brosnahan as Lois Lane and Nicholas Hoult as Lex Luthor. In this latest rendition of a story that’s been told on the big screen numerous times, Superman grapples with his powers while trying to balance everyday life as journalist Clark Kent after being sent to Earth from his home planet Krypton. (One new addition is the dog, Krytpo).
The cast also includes Skyler Gisondo (Jimmy Olsen), Sara Sampaio (Eve Teschmacher), Edi Gathegi (Mister Terrific), Terence Rosemore (Otis), Anthony Carrigan (Metamorpho), Isabela Merced (Hawkgirl) and María Gabriela de Faría (The Engineer).
